Washington DC – New data recently released by the U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA), and reviewed by the SUN DAY Campaign, projects utility-scale solar, wind, and battery storage will add more than 80 gigawatts (GW) of new generating capacity in the U.S. by February 28, 2027 while total fossil fuel and nuclear power capacity will fall by almost 5-GW. [1]
Renewable energy’s share of utility-scale generating capacity to grow from 33.4% to 36.6%:
As of March 1, 2026, renewable energy’s share of total U.S. utility-scale (i.e., >1-megawatt (MW)) generating capacity was 33.4%. EIA projects this to grow to 36.6% by February 28, 2027. Solar will add 42,628.6-MW thereby expanding its share from 12.7% to 15.5% while wind will grow by 14,507.4-MW, increasing from 13.1% to 13.6%. This includes 4,155.0-MW of new offshore wind capacity. The mix of other renewables (i.e., hydropower, biomass, and geothermal) will add 316.7-MW.
The combined capacity growth of all renewable energy sources for the 12-month period (57,452.7-MW) is almost 75% greater than that added during the previous 12 months (32,988.9-MW).
Meanwhile, EIA projects no new generating capacity by nuclear power and a net decline of 4,903.2-MW in fossil fuel capacity. [2]
With the inclusion of new small-scale solar, renewables’ capacity will surpass natural gas:
EIA does not provide a forecast for new capacity additions by small-scale solar (e.g., rooftop solar). [3] However, it does report that as of the end of February, small-scale solar capacity totaled 60.197.9-MW with over 10% (i.e., 6,068.9-MW) of that coming on-line during the prior year’s time. [4]
If small-scale solar adds a comparable amount by March 1, 2027 (e.g., 6,000-MW), it will bring renewable energy’s share of installed capacity up to 39.7%. Solar power’s share alone (19.7%) will be almost one-fifth of total U.S. capacity.
By comparison, natural gas’ share of generating capacity will drop from 40.0% to 38.3%.
Battery energy storage is projected to increase by over 50%:
For the forecast period, EIA expects utility-scale battery energy storage to surge from 44,630.7-MW to 67,549.6-MW – an increase of 51.4%.
Thus, the combination of renewable energy sources (including estimated small-scale solar) and battery energy storage will provide approximately 86,370-MW of new clean capacity.
Actual generation by renewables in the first two months of 2026 was up by over 10%:
Not surprisingly, the rapid expansion of renewables’ generating capacity has been accompanied by comparable growth in actual generation.
During January and February, electrical output by the mix of renewables increased by 10.8% and provided 26.0% of total generation – up from 23.6% during the same two-month period in 2025. The rate of growth by renewables was triple that of all energy sources combined (3.6%)
The growth was led by surges of 23.2% in utility-scale solar and a 22.9% in hydropower plus 11.4% growth in estimated small-scale solar. Electrical production by wind and geothermal also grew by 1.4% and 1.5% respectively. [5]
Once again, the electricity generated by the mix of solar and wind was greater than that provided by either coal or nuclear power. [6]
“Notwithstanding all of the policy obstacles thrown up by the Trump Administration during the last year, renewables raced ahead in 2025,” noted the SUN DAY Campaign’s executive director Ken Bossong. “Now they are poised to really press the pedal to the metal in 2026 and beyond.”
