The return of President Donald Trump signals a pivotal shift in U.S. foreign and economic policies, with significant implications for global dynamics as well as U.S.-India relations. President Trump’s “America First” agenda emphasizes aggressive protectionist measures, including proposed increased tariffs on all or most of U.S. imports and specific levies targeting China, Canada, Mexico, and BRICS nations. This raises critical questions about the future of U.S.-led alliances and its capacity to foster global cooperation in areas like climate action, counter-terrorism, and emerging technologies.
Primus Partners hosted a virtual roundtable discussion on Shaping Global Dynamics: Expectations from the New US Administration on 27 January. The event brought together distinguished figures from the US public policy and politics, corporate, and thought leaders from around the world, including:
– Dr. Vivek Lall (Chief Executive, General Atomics Global Corporation)
– Vinay Singh (Former CFO and Chief AI Officer, U.S. Department of Housing and Urban Development)
– Caroline Freund (Economist; Dean, UC San Diego School of Global Policy and Strategy; Former Global Director of Trade, Investment and Competitiveness, and Former Chief Economist, World Bank)
– Neal Patel (Political Advisor)
– Gopal Nadadur (SVP, The Asia Group; Non-Resident Senior Fellow, The Atlantic Council)
– Akanksha Ray (Senior Manager for AI & Digital Trust – Intel (DC, USA))
There was an engaging conversation around the ground realities, the shifting alliances and affiliations, and what the world can expect under such conditions. Some of the key messages that came out of the discussion were:
– The US runs a risk of being perceived as an unreliable partner if it were to back out of its earlier deals. But all said and done, there is no alternative to the US as a superpower, and USD as a strong currency.
– Trump could influence a major increase in oil trade between the US and Middle East.
– While US the Administration may not be funding sustainability initiatives, this opens up opportunities for India and countries in the Global South to innovate.
– Critical areas like ISR, big data, cloud computing, and electronic warfare should see future cooperation between the US and India in the area of defence.
– Even within the Republican Party, there is a debate over H1-B visas and whether the US should increase or restrict immigration for skilled workers.
– Just before the arrival of Trump, India was put on the second-tier list of countries for exporting advanced GPUs. This can potentially jeopardize India’s AI Mission and tech sovereignty discussion. The new administration would likely reassess this.
Caroline Freund, Dean of the UC San Diego School of Public Policy and Strategy, and Former Chief Economist at the World Bank was quite candid with her comments. She said that the US’s inconsistency in deals due to its changing leadership and ideals has raised questions about reliability, but it still carries a dominant position in global power and open capital markets. She further added that “Once you open the national security for reasons of tariff, you lose the ability to maintain the current stability in the system. We are definitely shifting to a bipolar world.” On the probable new global climate order, she remarked that while the US seems to back away from climate commitments, India and Europe will eventually need to be more involved on the issue.
Vinay Singh, Former CFO and Chief AI Officer, U.S. Department of Housing and Urban Development, highlighted the commitments in AI and emerging tech, with Stargate’s $500 billion investment showcasing the new administration’s priorities. He emphasized that regulatory challenges, especially at the state level, must be addressed for AI’s full potential. A unified approach between governments and industries is crucial for progress, and innovation hubs like California will continue to drive the AI revolution forward.
The session concluded with themes of multilateral ethos in an era of protectionism, on the importance of collaboration on critical sectors, and how technology is the now new tool of global diplomacy.
